Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Hillary's single digit victory

Hillary's spin machine is probably going to get away with convincing the mainstream media that she pulled off a 'double-digit,' 10-point victory last night. Once again, however, the numbers aren't on her side. Paul West at the Swamp proves it here:

Based on nearly complete returns, however, it doesn't appear that Clinton quite got there. According to the latest Associated Press tally, with less than one percent of precincts yet to be counted (50 of 9,218 precincts), Clinton is leading Obama by 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. That works out to a winning margin of 9.4 percent.

The elections division of the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's office, which also has more than 99 percent of the districts in (9,177 of 9,263) gives Clinton 54.3 percent and Obama 45.8 percent, a Clinton advantage of 8.5 percent.


Either way you bend it, she took PA by 9, not 10. Why does this matter? She'd love to be able to go on the stump in the next few days and remind voters of her 'double-digit' victory in PA--a huge win is exactly what she needed to be able to better make her case to the 245 Superdelegates that remain uncommitted. A 9 point victory is certainly strong, but not what she needed and far less of a margin than she had led by just a few weeks ago.

Granted, there are 50 precincts left to be counted, and theoretically, the lead could stretch past the 9.4 mark and be technically rounded up to 10. But until that happens, let's only hope the NYTimes and company have enough integrity to follow the numbers and not Hillary's take on them.

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